Companies often invest in hill-finding when times are good, but not when times are bad.

· Bits and Bobs 10/12/26
  • Companies often invest in hill-finding when times are good, but not when times are bad.
    • Hill-finding creates diffuse value for concrete cost.
    • It doesn't show linear returns, but it does give exposure to miracles.
    • Businesses tend to have an s-curve shape.
    • Explosive growth, then slowing growth as they saturate.
    • When the growth is explosive is when things that allow hill-finding are obvious to invest in.
      • You can do anything, so of course you should do things that produce long-term value.
    • But then when growth slows, everyone tightens down and budgets for anything that is not load-bearing gets cut.
    • This is precisely the time that finding new hills becomes existential.
    • This is a Shakespearean tragedy: even if you know how it ends you'll still fall for it.

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