I had the opportunity to see a presentation from Tom Costello, one of the authors of the paper that showed that LLMs are great at changing the beliefs of conspiracy theorists.

· Bits and Bobs 5/26/25
  • I had the opportunity to see a presentation from Tom Costello, one of the authors of the paper that showed that LLMs are great at changing the beliefs of conspiracy theorists.
    • Previously everyone assumed that conspiracy theorists were inherently hard to convince.
    • It turns out that it's just hard to make arguments that convince them.
    • Conspiracy theorists have an obsessive focus on a particular area.
      • The desire to believe the conspiracy theory is more acute than the desire to not believe it, which is more diffuse.
      • They know more "facts" about their obsession than you do.
    • You'd need vast stores of concrete relevant information, and also infinite patience to customize the argument to them.[lj]
    • Something that LLMs can do well!
    • In their research they found that the effects of convincing were durable.
    • They did some follow up research on the mechanism.
    • They varied eight different dimensions that might have made the LLM more convincing.
    • The only one that had an impact was the LLM's command of a vast set of facts.
    • They also investigated if LLMs would be equally effective at convincing people of conspiracy theories.
    • They found that if they allowed them to lie they were able to be similarly persuasive on average.
    • Another argument for why alignment with a user's interests is so key.

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