I saw a fascinating talk by Carl Benedikt Frey.

· Bits and Bobs 11/10/25
  • I saw a fascinating talk by Carl Benedikt Frey.
    • He is the author of How Progress Ends.
    • He points out that innovation and progress are disjoint.
    • There are replacing technologies and enabling technologies.
    • Replacing technologies are about doing an existing thing faster, better, cheaper.
      • For example, automatic elevators: replacing elevators with attendants.
    • Enabling technologies are about allowing a new kind of thing.
      • For example: the telescope: allowing us to see the cosmos in ways we couldn't before.
    • Replacing technologies replace existing labor, but enabling technologies don't.
    • Replacing technologies also have diminishing returns.
      • You're taking a quantity towards zero.
    • Replacing technologies are automation.
      • Enabling technologies are innovation.
    • Enabling technologies are what cause growth.
    • Large firms are more likely to invest in replacing technologies, and new entrants are more likely to create enabling technologies.
      • New market entrants are what do innovation over automation.
    • Industries that have more dynamism generate more growth.
    • One of the US's superpowers (at least historically) is its dynamism.
      • If you compare the average age of a company in the top 5 by market cap in a country, the US is ~40 years, and Germany is ~120 years.
    • Centralization leads to dynamism decline.
      • Harder for new entrants, larger entrants focus more on automation.
      • Incumbents lobby harder, and get more protective regulation.
    • Majority vote can only tighten, it can't innovate.
      • Tightening is different from generating.
    • With AIs making patents and papers easier to produce, we'll see patent and paper inflation.
      • We'll see more low-quality patents and papers.
      • A low-quality patent is one the inventor doesn't even bother paying the maintenance fee on.

More on this topic

From other episodes