It can be tempting to think that because luck played a major role, someone who was massively successful in their first outing will revert to the mean on their next.

· Bits and Bobs 6/24/24

They likely will revert to the mean, but maybe not as much as you think.

The different iterations are not fully independent.

Success in the earlier iteration gives resources (capital, knowhow, network) that give a much stronger starting hand in later iterations.

It's still luck but it's luck with a different probability distribution based on that stronger hand.

This can also lead to the reverse misinterpretation: "It can't be luck, because he was successful in multiple ventures!"

Luck, skill, and resources all play a role, and resources can be applied across games.