Most ideas get less convincing the closer you look.

They start out looking snazzy or polished.

But the closer you look, the more you see the gaps in reasoning, or find disconfirming evidence that undermines the simplicity of the idea.

In the extreme, something that looks superficially great but turns out to be terrible as you look closer is a gilded turd.

Concept videos are often like this: exciting… but the more you think about it, the more you realize how unrealistic it is.

The more time you spend with the idea, the more its quality regresses to the mean.

"Oh yeah, I guess this will be harder than we think."

But not all things have this characteristic! Some have the opposite.

They look superficially messy, random, rough and ready.

But the closer you look, the more convincing they become.

A sublime jumble.

You see that the fundamentals are even stronger than they looked at the beginning.

As you dig deeper you have more and more "whoa!" moments, and get even more convinced by the idea.

This is the mark of a truly rigorous idea.

True rigor rewards careful attention and curiosity.

When you find a truly rigorous thing, cherish it.

These ideas have significant potential.