No one at Apple did a TAM analysis to embark on the decade-long journey to get ID cards into Apple Wallet.

It was simply a thing that must be so.

What's the chance that Apple won't be around in a decade? Very slim.

What's the chance that Apple will be around but Apple Wallet won't? Very slim.

What is the chance that ID cards won't make sense in Apple Wallet? Very slim.

Armed with that clarity, you can embark on an even decade-long slog with conviction.

This is something that aggregators can do easily, given the gravity well dynamics of their business.

It's not that someone at Apple was lazy to not do the TAM analysis.

It's that the TAM analysis could not possibly matter given the fundamental characteristics of the domain.

The gravity well dynamics obviates all of the other analysis you might do.