One-ply ideas can be discovered by a swarm.

Imagine taking 100 random people from a given population (e.g. tech in SF).

Could they do the project you're considering if they were given a year to do it?

If they could, it's boring.

If there's a selection pressure from the market for that kind of idea, it will be discovered.

The ideas that are non-obvious to the swarm are the high leverage ones.