Overconfidence can erode trust.

· Bits and Bobs 8/17/26
  • Overconfidence can erode trust.
    • By default, we assume "if they sound confident then they know what they're talking about."
    • Most people feel shame if they are talking confidently about something they don't know.
    • If you are overconfident in one domain, people will update their priors for you.
      • "When they sound confident it's actually not an indicator that they know what they're talking about".
    • That leads to people being less willing to trust what you have to say.
    • Another test: how do you respond when someone points out you are wrong?
    • Do you graciously acknowledge the error, or do you try to pretend like it didn't happen or wasn't an error in the first place?