Questions like "what is the TAM" can kill a subtly brilliant strategy.

A subtly brilliant strategy is one that looks similar to others but has the potential to grow into something great: an acorn.

Often these strategies are a figure-ground inversion; a subtle reframe of what exists today that implies a very different path for continued investment.

These subtly brilliant strategies need a bit of shade at the beginning.

Questions like "What is the TAM of this" are valid questions, but they're like harsh sunlight.

And often at the very beginning questions like "what is the chance this is viable and will cheaply grow into something that might become great" are more important than "how massive will this tree be, assuming it successfully grew".

Weeds can handle direct sunlight: resilient in a boring, low-ceiling way.

Oak seedlings cannot: they're resilient in a big way but only once they've grown strong.