Restaurants in the first 3 years survive on novelty.
- Restaurants in the first 3 years survive on novelty.
- But then at a certain point they've burned through all of the people who haven't tried it yet, and need people who want to come back again and again.
- Similar to a contagion model of disease spread.
- If it's working they've have a power law distribution of regulars.
- Some people who come all the time.
- Some people who come once a year.
- But a non-trivial number of people who come back.
- The key metric is not "how many people come" but "how many people come back."
- The first visit might just be "oh it's new, let's try it!" or superficial signs of quality like a cool vibe.
- But people only come back if it's on net worth it.
- An indicator of quality of a restaurant: physical size of catchment basin.
- How far away do people come from to come to the restaurant?