Swarms seek out low-energy states.

In the context of UX you might say "users are lazy."

The integral of friction and uncertainty is remarkably smooth and predictive of which products succeed–at the level of the population

Individual users don't do the calculation in total; they do it stochastically and in pieces.

But with large enough swarms, that bias is consistent enough that the noise averages out and you're left with a very strong curve.