Systems need noise to be able to adapt.

· Bits and Bobs 3/24/25
  • Systems need noise to be able to adapt.
    • Imagine a bullseye that lots of archers are trying to hit.
    • Each time an arrow connects, it generates a little burst of light.
    • It's natural for a team to try to optimize the accuracy of their archers.
      • Share best practices from the best archers to help improve others.
      • Cull low-performing archers.
    • This pull towards more efficiency is the most obvious thing in the world.
    • But now imagine the lights turn out, everything is totally dark.
    • For a while, the archers continue hitting the bullseye, and when they do, they see the light.
    • But then, all of a sudden, the light disappears–the arrows aren't connecting.
    • Unbeknownst to you, the target has moved.
    • How do you find it again?
    • You have to probe in the dark, sending arrows randomly to try to find a hit.
    • If the target continues moving, you might never find it.
    • If you would have had some noise in the arrows, some spread around the bullseye the chance is that one of the arrows would have kept hitting.
    • That would have shone the way for the other archers to update their aim.
    • This noise fundamentally allows sensing in the dark.
    • The "roving bullseye in the dark" is what actual targets are like in real environments.
    • A formal analysis I've seen has shown that the optimal amount of noise is proportional to the expected rate of movement of the target.
      • This makes sense intuitively; with enough noise, you have some likelihood of one of the arrows still hitting even though the bullseye has moved.
    • It's easy to forget in real life that the target is actually roving in the darkness, but you must never forget.
    • The "bullseye" that we can see is not the real target, it is a proxy for it.
    • It makes us forget that the bullseye we see can be misleading.