The adoption of a new product has two distinct curves:

· Bits and Bobs 3/3/25
  • The adoption of a new product has two distinct curves:
    • 1) the "gee whiz" temporary flash-in-the-pan bump of how well it demos, powered by every early adopter trying it once.
    • 2) the "this is useful" compounding curve powered by word of mouth.
    • The two curves are different and distinct.
    • Things that demo well but are otherwise not useful have the first curve without the second.
    • Things that demo poorly but have an inherent network effect of quality have the second curve but not the first.
    • Some new products have both, like Google Maps did right when it was first launched.
    • It's easy to confuse the bump of the gee-whiz for the hill of quality.

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