The outcome of disruptive changes are only obvious in retrospect.

Once it happens it will feel obvious, but also we will see that there were seeds of the future already growing before the disruption.

But we don't know which ones are the seeds of the future and which are noise until after!

Even a lot of people in the industry who are thinking a lot about LLMs are implicitly thinking about them as simply a sustaining technology (though they think they're thinking about things disruptively).

Disruptive things are not just more than sustaining things, they are different.

Extrapolation doesn't work for disruptive things, but it does work for sustaining things.