When you're saturated it's hard to be open to disconfirming evidence.

· Bits and Bobs 8/24/26
  • When you're saturated it's hard to be open to disconfirming evidence.
    • When you're saturated and focusing on executing, any disconfirming evidence will derail you.
    • But disconfirming evidence builds up, and at some point your model is dangerously miscalibrated.
    • Being in diverging mode allows you to absorb disconfirming evidence, but not execute.
    • Being in converging mode allows you to execute but not absorb disconfirming evidence.
    • You must oscillate between converging mode and diverging mode on a regular cadence.
      • I've found that 80% converging and 20% diverging by wallclock time is a reasonable balance for me.
      • Each individual has a different default equilibrium that is most effective for them.
    • Note that if you're in a team, you all must be in the diverging mode or converging mode at the same time.
      • If one person is in diverging mode but everyone else is in converging mode it will be like gears grinding and you'll drive each other crazy.

More on this topic

From other episodes