A disquieting experience: realizing a thing you thought is going great is actually bad.

· Bits and Bobs 5/4/26
  • A disquieting experience: realizing a thing you thought is going great is actually bad.
    • You start off by noticing one surprising thread.
    • As you pull on, you realize it goes deeper than you had realized.
    • The longer you pull on it, the more you update your priors on how likely other parts of the solution are to be correct.
    • A thing that looked great might turn out to be terrible.
    • A gilded turd.

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