Altman's wager is a commitment device, not a belief.

· Bits and Bobs 8/31/26
  • Altman's wager is a commitment device, not a belief.
    • A forecast upgrades continuously against evidence.
    • A commitment holds until it becomes unsustainable, then breaks discontinuously.
    • The logic of Altman's wager has no way for the price to come down gently.
      • Hedging is forbidden by construction.
    • That means that the bubble won't deflate so much as pop.