Prediction markets can influence what actually happens.

· Bits and Bobs 3/9/26
  • Prediction markets can influence what actually happens.
    • When you allow betting on something it changes the nature of the thing.
    • The betting and the thing being bet on are not a closed system.
    • If someone bets on "Likelihood the speaker at X event gets a pie in the face," it makes it more likely that it will happen.
    • Prediction markets with low liquidity are extremely easy to hack.