Risk only really shows up in larger time slices.

If you can slice things down to fit in the adjacent possible, there isn't that much risk.

That's why the iterative adjacent possible is so powerful: no risk, but same upside.

Take each step and then just keep taking them while it continues to work.

You don't even have to know if steps many steps down the line will work: it doesn't matter!

When considering a next step, ask yourself:

1) Will it almost certainly work and pay for itself?

Either because it creates value, or the cost is low.

For example, a thing that you enjoy doing and gives you energy has a negative opportunity cost.

2) Is there a chance that down that path is a great (as opposed to merely good) outcome?

Don't get too hung up on precision for the "great" outcome–if it's compounding, or multiple orders of magnitude beyond what you can do today, that's fine.

Don't spend time getting faux precision.

If those two things are "yeah" then stop navelgazing and just do it!

Then, repeat!