Sometimes early momentum traps you, a phenomena you could call creating a tech island.

· Bits and Bobs 1/27/25
  • Sometimes early momentum traps you, a phenomena you could call creating a tech island.
    • An early mover with a clear advantage builds up their proprietary system.
    • Over time, the outside world creates an open alternative.
    • It starts off not as good, and the early mover continues to have an edge.
    • But the early mover is one entity, and the outside world is a swarm.
    • The swarm can innovate faster than the singular entity, so it starts off slower but gains momentum and inevitably beats the early mover.
    • But now the early mover is stuck in a terrible dilemma
      • Option one is to continue with their internal system.
      • Option two is to switch to the external system.
      • Option one seems tempting.
        • It used to give them a true edge, after all… maybe they can recover that edge.
        • But the open swarm will overpower them and leave them further and further behind, making the dilemma even worse.
      • Option two seems terrible.
        • To switch to the external system would give up all of the advantage, and actually put them at a disadvantage since they have to learn how to do things in a totally different way at odds with all of their previous knowhow and expertise.
    • This dilemma gets harder and harder the longer it goes on.
    • Early momentum that then holds you back.
    • Stuck on an alternate branch of history.
    • This dynamic only happens in the early stage of a paradigm, not the late stage.

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