The way you mess something up is with failed execution.
The way you have great returns (something above linear) is by picking the right curve.
Execution can only cap downside. The right strategic insight sets upside.
You need both.
From other episodes
- Capping downside but leaving upside gives momentum, due to something like the third law of motion.2026-03-17
- Agents will optimize for the thing they get evaluated on.2026-03-02
- People who know how to do abundance can maximize upside.2026-02-23
- When you have the right set of conditions, you can do a low-risk alpha rollout that possibly scales smoothly to a full rollout if the product turns out to be ready.2026-02-09
- Technocrats love optimization.2025-12-08
- A culture of permissionless innovation requires capped downside to the commons.2025-12-08
- Will LLMs lead to compounding ambiguity in communication?2025-09-02
- A cynical form of load-bearing ambiguity: the motte-and-bailey inchworm.2025-09-02