What do you do when a gold rush is on?

· Bits and Bobs 3/11/24

A gold rush is like a frenzied lottery.

A large number of random entrants will win big; most people will win nothing.

For example, most railroads back in the railroad boom never made their money back.

A similar dynamic will likely happen with large language models: extremely capital intensive to produce, but very little pricing power to make back the investment directly.

Betting on any particular gold mine is a lottery ticket.

Two meta moves in a gold rush:

1) Sell pickaxes

2) Figure out what people will want once gold is abundant

These meta moves put you in a good position no matter who wins the individual lotteries of the gold rush.

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