People tend to focus on big rocks, but they should focus on the acorns.

· Bits and Bobs 2/5/24

Big rocks are already big. They're obvious points of leverage.

"If we could just move this rock, it would move the needle!"

But big rocks are also the hardest ones to move.

In a product context, big customers are often the ones with the strangest, and most bespoke, demands.

Some forces grow super-linearly with big rocks, meaning they are pound-for-pound harder to move.

The alternative of going after a 1000 pebbles can feel underwhelming.

Especially if each one has some kind of non-trivial fixed cost.

But that's why it's best to go after acorns.

Acorns are small now, but have the potential to grow on their own into towering oak trees.

Rocks are not alive. Acorns are possibly alive.

This makes a significant difference, and gives the self-accelerating upside.

How do you help acorns grow?

Any given acorn might or might not grow into an oak tree.

Luckily, there are a lot of cheap things to do to stochastically help lots of acorns sprout.

Spread out fertilizer.

Give them all a bit of shade.

Make sure there's water.

This way, you can take a meta-bet on lots of acorns.

You can late-bind your decision on which one to invest the most in, waiting to see which ones get momentum to start.

This allows you to invest most efforts into the ones that turn out to be viable… without needing to know which ones are viable a priori!

Many things that will become great are not great today.

If you have small investments in a diverse set of things that might become great, the likelihood at least one of them sprouts into something great is much higher.

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