When applying the doorbell in the jungle pattern, it's often easier to say what failure looks like than success.

What's the worst case if this idea doesn't work?

A very small, capped amount of opportunity cost.

What's the best case if this idea works?

Potentially uncapped upside.

Capped things are easier to estimate than uncapped things.

The average of a capped thing is useful; the average of an uncapped thing is meaningless.