When you are an all powerful leader in an organization where members can be fired, it is extremely hard as the leader to get good disconfirming evidence.

States are unlike companies in that states, except in egregious cases, can't fire their citizens.

Non-dictator states inherently get disconfirming evidence, constantly.

That disconfirming evidence is annoying, and can even hurt, but it makes the overall system antifragile.

But in companies an employee who makes too much noise is liable to get sidelined or fired.

Employees watch carefully and see what kinds of risks that others took led to success and which ones harm them or get them knocked out of the game.

As a powerful leader, even a small gesture can have massive ripple effects.

People will whisper about that revealed preference, and it can take on a life much larger than the leader realizes.

As a leader, you think you're winning more and more arguments because you're smarter, but it's actually because you're more powerful and people are more fearful of you.

Very powerful leaders surround themselves with sycophants, unintentionally, and believe they are ever more brave and bold, doing a better and better job even if they are doing worse.