88 chunks · 61 episodes
...es must overshoot, because the ecosystem momentum is a lagging indicator of the ground truth. Any time there's a time delay over uncertainty, there will be oscillations, and repeated under- and-over-shooting.
...ong" is often good enough for social positioning. But it's not good enough in a ground truthed environment. If you aren't being continuously ground-truthed (for example by a competitor) then everything appears to work, until one day, catastro...
Fable-class models have a larger step-size of problems they can solve. Their adjacent possible is larger.[b] They can handle more of a leap without needing a human's judgment in the loop. Step-size is about how much effort can you do before you need some form of ground-truthing? You can ground-truth
...human. That's why the second 90% takes so much longer. The human element is the ground truthing of "making this something that users in the real world will accept." Not just a good concept or demo, but something useful.
...tal sense but that at sea level wouldn't make any sense. Sea level is where the ground truth emerges.
Power is an emergent social fact. It's ground truthed, ultimately, in "who could vanquish who (and survive!) if it ever came to that." But of course it almost never comes to that in modern society. Tha...
...ke you. LLM helps you be productive but if it's self referential it escapes the ground truth. If you ask it to take you somewhere crazy, it likely will. Only Claude models reliably push back to nonsensical prompts.
...others. People make decisions based on beliefs. Beliefs are correlated with the ground truth but also self-referential to others beliefs, emergently. Power can be lost if you take an action that collapses people's beliefs of your power.
...he midpoint of the distribution of the population. Often, this mid-point is the ground truth… because the asymmetry of belief is tuned towards the thing that people can verify with their own two eyes. But sometimes there's an asymmetry of bel...
...don't show it t them yet. But then you go deeper into the cave and further from ground truthing it. Stop wasting time with AI, use it to actually do things you care about!
...ion of any shitty idea. You can do a lot of damage and wasted time if you never ground truth it with people. If you only think it's a good idea and only asked agents, you're in a cave. It feels like you're finding resonance but really you're ...
...that keeps their thinking sharp, This leads to them being disconnected from the ground truth and, due to their leverage, possibly dangerous. When you're surrounded by an endless stream of sycophants, it's impossible to not be lost. With chatb...
The components of the ground truth can exist in a group but still be obscured by various weeds. Weeds like empathy issues, personality mismatches, power dynamics, etc. A system to do t...
Insulation from the ground truth lets you take big swings. Most of those swings will just be delusions. But some of them, in retrospect, will turn out to have been innovations.
Larger organizations are much more insulated from ground truth. They have more volume per unit surface area than smaller organizations. Many more interactions are inside the bubble than outside of it. It's where ...
...f the theory of the code. The code is the map, the theory is the territory. The ground truth of what it's supposed to do and how it's supposed to work. Vibecoding makes you less aligned with the theory of the code.[fq] The map vs the territor...
Metrics can be used to help ground truth your thinking but should never replace your thinking.
Claude thinks everything it outputs is brilliant. You need an external ground truthing process. Your curation and judgment. There needs to be a quality control entity in the middle that isn't eager for your approval. A sphincter posi...
In times of disruption ground truthing is even more important. When you don't have a permeable membrane then you're a self referencing system. You're not ground truthed. "Are we good?" ...
...believes, producing a never ending stream of confirming evidence, no matter the ground truth. In a cacophony of information, you can choose which subset to pay attention to. Our brains make the implicit assumption that what we see (a subset) ...