Altman's Wager is the core question in frontier AI.

· Bits and Bobs 8/24/26
  • Altman's Wager is the core question in frontier AI.
    • This is not my frame, I received it third-hand.
    • Altman's Wager is that Recursive Self Improvement is inevitable and so you must make every decision assuming it will happen, and take actions to make it more likely to happen.
      • If you accept the wager, you may not take any hedging actions, because the value is infinite.
    • RSI will be an infinite runaway, so the expected value is infinite.
    • The absurdity in the analysis is entirely due to the infinity.
    • The frontier labs (and their investors) have all implicitly accepted Altman's Wager.
      • If you don't accept the wager then the frontier labs' valuations are ludicrous.
    • If you accept the wager you are now bound by it; a self-reinforcing belief.
    • People who accept Altman's Wager have a messianic belief in RSI.
      • Once you've committed, the only path forward is to keep on doubling down.
    • A self-reinforcing messianic belief deeply intertwined with the world economy?
    • What could possibly go wrong?

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