14 chunks · 13 episodes
The ceiling of usage of an ecosystem is tied to the expected value of the worst case downside. A small problem that is very likely could have a high expected value, as could a game-over but rare problem. Even if 99% ...
... necessarily choose the highest upside one, but rather the one with the largest expected value, a calculation that incorporates the likelihood of success — and even then most find it prudent to hedge, or build in option value. A dreamer, though...
...lected by the swarm based on randomly winning the lottery before the start. The expected value of the swarm members' tickets at the start are tiny, since most will be worth nothing. As an individual, you have only one ticket, so to maximize the...
...ary outcome makes the decisions way easier to make. You don't need to calculate expected value or anything. Just consider the null outcome and the great outcome, and see how bad it would be in either case. For example, maybe it's the null outco...
...your calendar data. Which one do you pick? The latter, unless the former has an expected value an order of magnitude beyond the former. Over time the one with the edge will grow more and more powerful (thus requiring more and more trust) until ...
...t many more will be willing to learn. Deciding to try it is an expected cost vs expected value calculation. What they see other people doing changes that calculation of expectations.
...s up in an old public-but-not-publicized essay. A primary use case is one whose expected value for a user exceeds their expected cost. It's "expected" because it's based on users priors for how the feature will work, based on: How similar tools...
...r center. This spark is a new use case that is minimally viable. This means its expected value is greater than the expected cost for some critical mass of users. Second, they grow quickly based on the speed of their network effects. Some networ...
...cremental, therefore it can't be a big idea." An idea is both its instantaneous expected value, but also, more importantly, its long term possible value. Many of the best ideas are small to start but then have a smooth, accelerating slope upwar...
... thing to be viable for a given user, its expected cost has to be less than its expected value. Cost and value here are not just financial considerations but also things like opportunity cost, frustration, meaning. When someone cares intrinsica...
... has a 50% chance of $100M outcome, and a 50% chance of $0. These have the same expected value, but A has much more variance. Some people will be more motivated by the upside potential of scenario A. But presumably quite a lot more people will ...
...in these environments is that you don't know which option will have the highest expected value. But no matter which option you pick, you'll almost certainly pick one that creates a lot of value.
...e a powerful new user segment" adds a bonus so the no-brainer use case has more expected value, so now it's worth doing. You do those no-brainer features, knowing that the worst case if the hypothesis is wrong you will have unlocked some value ...
...en a primary use case and a secondary use case. A primary use case is one whose expected value for a user is greater than its expected cost. This difference gives a gradient of activation energy to lead to more adoption. The gradient need not b...