Big ideas with a full incremental glide path are radically more valuable.

Most big ideas don't work.

Somewhere along the path there's a hidden trap, some unforeseen game-over event.

The longer the path, the more likely there's at least one step that has a non-obviously non-viable step somewhere in it that is game over.

Some hidden miracle that is necessary to survive.

An idea with a full incremental glide path is different.

A full path from where you are to a great outcome, where each step is continuous with the one before it, and no miracles are required.

Many miracles are hidden; it's easy to ignore them (kayfabe!)

But what matters is not whether you recognize it requires a miracle, but that it does.

The real world doesn't care if you don't realize the miracle is important.

It will just knock you out of the game.

That's why it's important to seek disconfirming evidence, including by seeking novel perspectives, to discover hidden miracles along the path.

The thing that is most important about an idea is not that it ends up at a great place--lots of plans that don't work have that characteristic.

The thing that is important is that because it's non miraculous, you actually might get there!