Even if you're right as a system thinker on the multi-ply effects, it will take a long time for them to actually be validated.

In the meantime you could go bankrupt in that position.

Even when it does come true, it will be so indirect that people who weren't paying attention will say "well that was going to happen anyway" or "I didn't see you do any heroic action that directly caused that, you just got lucky"

Another example of "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"