Three phases of a new disruptive paradigm:
- Three phases of a new disruptive paradigm:
- 1) Vertical integration at the very beginning for the breakthrough proof-of-existence.
- One particular centralized / verticalized approach wins, but only for the beginning.
- This is the AOL phase.
- 2) Cambrian explosion of open-ended ecosystem exploration.
- Openness beats any vertical entrant.
- 3) Consolidation as the best practices are all discovered and now become increasingly efficient.
- A few dozen highly centralized players emerge that act like gravity wells; everything else fades away or is gobbled up.
- Then, repeat with the next disruptive paradigm.
- This cycle takes a couple of decades to play out.