31 chunks · 20 episodes
...ining data. Second, if there's a model that everyone uses that has a subtle but consistent bias, that bias at society scale could lead to significant society-scale impacts. The Ouija Board effect again: a consistent bias in a noisy signal, at sc...
...to significant movement of the collective, as if by magic. Micro phenomena with consistent bias leads to macro phenomena that emerge as if by magic. This is the distinctive name I should use consistently for the "consistent bias at scale stands ...
...doesn't know, they are far less likely to write something in the first place. A consistent bias, so its consistency shows up despite the noise. Very few "I don't know" in training data. Because if the writer didn't know, why would they bother wr...
Collective agency. A small consistent bias of meaning can have a huge aggregate outcome at the level of the population.
...bly one of the human raters had a slight preference for the word "delve." But a consistent bias in the RLHF data can create a bias that stands out from the noise. Now multiply that one model by billions of interactions, and suddenly that one per...
... agreeableness. At every micro decision in the company and product design, that consistent bias is always there. Even though any individual decision might be lost in the noise, the bias is clear and powerful, and the result is a sycophantic prod...
A consistent bias: the LLM will agree with your side of the story. Of course it will! If it didn't, you wouldn't be as likely to talk to it. Friends in real life do th...
...ng. If you penalize guessing, hallucinations become structurally less likely. A consistent bias in a noisy system.
...magic is it requires no coordination or top down control. All you need is: 1) A consistent bias for each action that moves each item closer to its correct position. 2) An authentic signal that has no structural incentive for cheating in each act...
...: AI is a Mass-Delusion Event I've talked in the past about how a signal with a consistent bias across a population[bm] will stand out even amongst a ton of noise. That force powers evolution and other beneficial emergent phenomena. But it can a...
...ell. No need to overthink it! Surf the possibility space; as long as you have a consistent bias, it will default-cohere.
...ive, to signal something even if it's not their authentic desire. If there is a consistent bias to what individual want, then the signals will tend to align, and if you multiply them all together, the noise drops out and the signal remains. This...
... aligned with what the creator found valuable. Naturally authentic. That gave a consistent bias amongst the noise for what humans find valuable. LLMs then absorbed it through osmosis in their training. LLMs can't vouch for new things in an authe...
...erall true shape of the distribution to be visible at scale. This exploits the "consistent bias at enough scale can emerge even from noisy streams" phenomena that powers all emergent phenomena–including evolutionary gradients.
...rule, you have a structurally larger chance of being knocked out of the game. A consistent bias that emerges clear as day if you average all of the noisy examples together.
...ity. Despite all of the noise in the real world of specific examples, there's a consistent bias. A structural difference. What effect might this have at scale in society?[fg][fh][fi][fj]
...is the engine of the United State's continuing advantage in innovation. A small consistent bias over noisy data of high gumption people who decide to emigrate. Emigrating is a hard thing to break out of the status quo, it requires volition. Peop...
A slippery slope is an example of an emergent phenomena of noisy signal with consistent bias. No individual step is that bad, obscured by noise. The bias is in one direction: the gravity of incentives. So the emergent global effect is clear a...
...iven term, and that bias will lead to what the term means, especially if it's a consistent bias many first-time hearers will share. Terms like "context engineering" are useful because they mean the thing that most experts hearing it for the firs...
Magnetism is another example of "small but consistent bias" emergent effects. Each individual atom's alignment isn't that big of a deal. But at the macroscale huge fields result.