No company wants to be the dumb pipes.
...o be the dumb pipes. But everyone else wants the pipes they use to be dumb. The model providers don't want to be dumb pipes so they're moving aggressively up the stack to the application layer.
Topic: model provider
30 chunks · 21 episodes
1.9x burst in 2025 Q2
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Peak quarter intensity across the topic's active span. Higher values mean attention was concentrated into a shorter stretch rather than spread evenly over time.
Topic summary
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A short read on the topic's time range, peak episode, and strongest associations. Use it as the quick orientation before drilling into examples.
- model provider appears in 30 chunks across 21 episodes, from 2024-07-15 to 2026-06-01.
- Its densest episode is Bits and Bobs 5/19/25 (2025-05-19), with 4 observations on this topic.
- Semantically it travels with llm model, model quality, and OpenAI, while by chunk count it sits between background noise and status quo; its yearly rank moved from #61 in 2024 to #58 in 2026.
Over time
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Observations
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The primary evidence view for this topic. Sort it chronologically when you want concrete examples behind the larger pattern.
LLMs are the input to the next big thing.
... it will take time to discover which ones. We are in the early innings! The LLM model providers are the electricity providers. Expensive, competitive, value-creating... but not necessarily a great business.
If this is a new internet, are you working at Mosaic, or are you working at Cisco?
...t world! But less strategic power than the things that directly face users. LLM model providers will definitely be important... and also more likely to be subterranean. Unless the UX of actually using the models, e.g. high-quality integration w...
Everyone's assuming the LLM providers will have significant leverage in the AI era.
...s have a default advantage, but not a massive one. The reason it feels like the model providers' 1P UX will win is that it assumes that the "killer use case" of LLMs is a chatbot. If the killer use case is a vanilla chat bot, then it makes sens...
Training gives LLMs background knowledge.
...l of the other data streams to feed LLMs, as evidenced by how willing the major model providers are to agree to contracts to not use any queries for training.
It's amazing how much competition there is for LLMs.
...memories) and is getting some stickiness… but it need not be the thing from the model providers. It's totally possible that someone could use off-the-shelf models from the top providers and create the sticky, value-generating service. The LLM p...
Why are users more scared of LLM providers getting their data than some random sketchy analytics endpoint?
...your cookies and I will keep them safe" said the Cookie Monster. Interestingly, model providers don't seem to find the querystream particularly valuable and are willing to contractually give up the right to use it. In practice, we should all be...
How will the competitive dynamic of LLM-powered chatbots play out?
...tickiness comes from becoming a paying subscriber. Indirect network effect: the model providers' actions imply the querystream isn't particularly valuable to increase model quality OpenAI is the kleenex of AI - if consumers know a single model ...
Confidential compute is only part of the story.
...rovider and owner of the data doing some unscrupulous. Even if one of the major model providers added Confidential Compute for their consumer app offering, it wouldn't change that much. The threat people worry about is the LLM provider training...
The main AI model providers are in an interesting strategic position.
The main AI model providers are in an interesting strategic position. Their competitive differentiation is they're extremely good at producing models. All of them were research...