Ilya's assertion from many years ago "compression is intelligence."
...on is intelligence.[ag]" To successfully compress something, you have to have a predictive model of it.
Topic: predictive model
11 chunks · 11 episodes
Topic summary
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A short read on the topic's time range, peak episode, and strongest associations. Use it as the quick orientation before drilling into examples.
- predictive model appears in 11 chunks across 11 episodes, from 2023-12-04 to 2026-04-06.
- Its densest episode is Bits and Bobs 12/4/23 (2023-12-04), with 1 observation on this topic.
- Semantically it travels with ooda loop and schelling point, while by chunk count it sits between perfectly bespoke and vertical integration; its yearly rank moved from #60 in 2023 to #89 in 2026.
Over time
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Observations
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I learned this week one of my analysis techniques is formally known as "Reflexive thematic analysis."
...y continuously distilling your intuition into formal structure until you have a predictive model.
A rule of thumb: spend 80% of time in fast execution, and 20% in synthesis.
...slow twitch time you're abducting new learning out of that error to have a more predictive model. Now that it's factored into the model, the next phase of fast execution gives you more leverage than you had before. This is similar to what our bra...
We are all babies in the Hyper age.
We are all babies in the Hyper age. Babies don't have a predictive model of the world. Everything is overwhelming: it's all blooming, buzzing confusion. We now live in the cacophonous Hyper age. Everyone is awash in bloomi...
For a tool to feel like an extension of you you must have a nearly fully predictive model of what it will do.
For a tool to feel like an extension of you you must have a nearly fully predictive model of what it will do. The illusion of it being an extension of you only works if you feel you can control it with high precision. Every time you can't ...
This week I learned about a simple model that predicted the path of the ancestral migrations in Australia.
... of the ancestral migrations in Australia. Apparently the two components of the predictive model for the path of the migrations are "least calories" but also "prominent visual landmarks to sight off:" In a big undifferentiated desert, having a cl...
Last week I asserted that there's no easy way to learn.
... Let me try a slightly different derivation. Learning means developing a better predictive model of the world. Without error there is nothing in the model to correct. Correcting weights to produce a better model is literally what learning means. ...
To be surprised, you have to have an expectation; a predictive model (explicit or implicit).
To be surprised, you have to have an expectation; a predictive model (explicit or implicit). If you have no predictive model, it will all just be chaos, and there will be no surprise. Surprise is the raw material for l...
What does it mean when something is said to be predictable?
... more predictable in a way that is difficult to explain to others. An effective predictive model is one that can produce accurate predictions… and do so cheaply and quickly enough to actually be useful in practice. A participant who has an effect...
The best way to learn is to teach it to someone else
...is a great forcing function for you to understand the thing well enough to do a predictive model of it. (This line of reasoning originates with Peter Norvig, I believe.)
When we expect to make a decision, we are in a massively different head space.
...t information, balancing across a lot of possibilities, developing an intuitive predictive model, and being ready to have a decision if someone said "OK, go time, make your decision RIGHT NOW". The two situations look somewhat similar externally ...