A rich source of details to apply abduction to is the weird things your most motivated users do.

· Bits and Bobs 10/9/23

Sometimes what they're doing will look crazy!

But assume that they see something others do not. They're crawling through broken glass based on the strength of that conviction and the value the behavior creates for them.

Look at what the user is doing and try to steelman it. What if their use case is not some random one, but a general one shared by many users, where this one user is the only one with a sufficiently high pain tolerance?

That is, abduct a hypothesis out of the use case for the kinds of things that might be valuable based on the existence proof of one ad hoc real world use case.

Many of those things you might build based on that hypothesis might be high-risk if the hypothesis turns out to be wrong. But some subset will be things you already knew you wanted to build.

For those no-brainers, the abducted hypothesis "this might turn out to be a powerful new user segment" adds a bonus so the no-brainer use case has more expected value, so now it's worth doing.

You do those no-brainer features, knowing that the worst case if the hypothesis is wrong you will have unlocked some value you knew about from other use cases. But if the hypothesis was right, then you should see greater-than-expected value unlocked. That's a clear signal to keep executing on that hypothesis.

This is part of the mindset and playbook I often call the doorbell in the jungle.

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