In complex environments, we tend to do the opposite of what we should.

We only have so much room in our minds for ambiguity and uncertainty.

In complex environments, uncertainty goes up.

So we crouch defensively to bring our inbound signal to a level we can grapple with.

Shorter time horizons

Posterize (make gray things black and white)

Put on blinders

But this is exactly the opposite of what is necessary to succeed in complex environments!

The more you crouch, the worse it gets, leading you to crouch more, in a toxic spiral

Tools like AI might help us grapple with and navigate uncertainty better than we were able to do ourselves.