116 chunks · 71 episodes
...ges they see too. When used in a private, candid environment, it's a magnet for disconfirming evidence, giving others permission to point out challenges they see.
...ey think are interesting, and because it's a diversity of perspectives it finds disconfirming evidence (or viral resonance) in ideas quickly. This means that ideas that gather energy in the group are very likely to be viral and game-changing. That is, ...
...y summarization of the priors in the space. Then try to find little snippets of disconfirming evidence. Look for it everywhere. In every 1:1 poke and prod (lightly and delicately) for it. Even amorphous statements like "Sure is a lot of change happenin...
Just because you're great at seeking and absorbing disconfirming evidence at the tactics (e.g. talking to users about features) doesn't mean you're good at seeking and absorbing disconfirming evidence at the level of strate...
... result, they tend to win many arguments. The arguments they don't win count as disconfirming evidence they can use to get smarter. They can also use the rate-of-argument-failure to calibrate how well they understand a given domain. But now imagine tha...
...t's easy to lull yourself into thinking it's possible when you don't see active disconfirming evidence.
...output to choose from objective processes, there's a lot of opportunity to find disconfirming evidence and learn. ... But there's also a much broader field to cherry pick from, making this cherry picking effect even stronger.
...ithout ceiling, in ambiguous situations. You can think of it as "they can sense disconfirming evidence in their blindspot, and disconfirming information energizes them."
...ong. If you think you're smarter than everyone else, you won't seek out as much disconfirming evidence. More threats will become "dogs that didn't bark" kinds of threats, creating an overall more dangerous situation.
... and "do every analysis down to minute detail in triplicate." It's "humbly seek disconfirming evidence and absorb it into your mental model, and don't waste time chasing down the illusion of certainty".
...er intellectual rut together. An intellectual rut is where you might not notice disconfirming evidence because you're too deeply tied to a given view. Unless it's a highly relevant topic that they care about deeply or affects their day to day, a subord...
...nty to lift, just a bit. You should spend at least some time looking for novel, disconfirming evidence. You might find a great pathway you hadn't considered. Then, you look for cheap projects that have the strongest activation gradient (marginal value ...
...neously conclude not "the idea is wrong" but "the execution was wrong". Sharing disconfirming evidence from the person responsible for executing a plan once it is committed can look like making excuses. The people best situated to understand disconfirm...
Low-stakes, psychologically safe spaces are the best place to share disconfirming evidence. It is orders of magnitude to say an environment is low-stakes and psychologically safe than to actually make it so.
...u can write down. When it's written down, it will be easier to find and attract disconfirming evidence. This allows you to place bets more deliberately as opposed to entirely implicitly. A machine cannot change itself in fundamental ways. A machine can...
...executor. That can lead to behavior where people intuitively ignore potentially disconfirming evidence. This can cause Goodhart's law: everyone focusing on making the metric green, not thinking as much about the amount of ground-truthed impact created....