116 chunks · 71 episodes
...ful not just because you get the benefit of adversarial feedback and sources of disconfirming evidence. It's also useful because it forces you to distill your fuzzy idea vibes into concrete arguments.
...traints and knowhow. Learning is hard, it's being buffeted around, caught up in disconfirming evidence that you can't ignore. It's frustrating, but necessary for growth.
...up, it's less likely a person with a game-changing idea (or an important bit of disconfirming evidence) will be in the group.
Being on the receiving side of disconfirming evidence hurts. That's one of the reasons that we all say we seek disconfirming evidence, but in many contexts we don't actually. To get accountability requir...
...g requires generalizing and generalizing is hard. Generalizing requires finding disconfirming evidence proactively and changing a thing to be resilient to it. Constantly figuring out how your thing will break and defending against it. Proactively findi...
Chaos monkeys generate swarms of disconfirming evidence for a system. Systems that survive a chaos monkey get stronger. Too much chaos could kill the system, knock it out of the game. So start with small a...
Certainty and correctness are orthogonal. If you refuse to see disconfirming evidence you can be very certain. If you are incorrect, then at some point the real world will knock you out of the game. The more powerful you are in that co...
...tant. It will just knock you out of the game. That's why it's important to seek disconfirming evidence, including by seeking novel perspectives, to discover hidden miracles along the path. The thing that is most important about an idea is not that it e...
...tion is not about convincing others. It's about convincing yourself, by seeking disconfirming evidence.
...gile hypothesis. The more that they seem to help us, the more that they survive disconfirming evidence, the more that they resonate with different people, the more confident we become that the thread is onto something useful. Once you get confident eno...
...more likely you are to find a great new combination in it, or discover relevant disconfirming evidence. You can make some contexts higher-trust by having a rigorous system in place. For example, societies with rigorous contract law and enforcement are ...
...ished. But the closer you look, the more you see the gaps in reasoning, or find disconfirming evidence that undermines the simplicity of the idea. In the extreme, something that looks superficially great but turns out to be terrible as you look closer ...
...go is tied to the thing; if it fails, then you fail. You will do the kayfabe of disconfirming evidence but no more.
...the belief system is powerful, it is likely because it can absorb and grow from disconfirming evidence. The former is a (dangerous) gilded turd. The latter is a sublime jumble. Another way of putting it: is the belief system open or closed?
...ter, only the core group focuses on execution and alignment; the others provide disconfirming evidence to help the group survive. The latter is more like dodgeball than soccer.
...cliff" "The UXR study told me to do it!" Data is input, a source of potentially disconfirming evidence. What ultimately matters is the informed judgment of calibrated people.
...ption is right, seeking confirming evidence. It doesn't stay open to surprising disconfirming evidence.
...without the loop is bad. Closing a feedback loop is about the ability to absorb disconfirming evidence from that loop. A short feedback loop is better than a long feedback not-loop. You have to have a series of nested loops, all of which close. If any ...
...ook very traditional and heroic. The internals of a team is about ground truth, disconfirming evidence. The external of a team is about posturing, kayfabe, perception. Who can you let inside? How can you make that as large as possible? When a lead desc...
...ave to actually have earned the conviction from a rigorous analysis that sought disconfirming evidence.