22 chunks · 16 episodes
Other people get excited about logarithmic value for exponential cost curves, since they unlock value in the first few plys. These are Gilded Turds. Look great to start but look worse the longer they go on. I only care ...
Top-down approaches have logarithmic value for exponential cost. Bottom up / emergent approaches have exponential value for logarithmic cost. The former create value quickly but then hit a fundamental ceiling. The...
...t should be infallible. This has a logarithmic curve to reach infinite quality. Exponential cost for logarithmic quality. What if you assume the LLM is kind of a dummy sometimes? If your system is resilient to that, you can unlock exponential val...
... smaller as you go. Strikingly clear in this visual example. Logarithmic value, exponential cost. Diminishing returns. Did anyone in your tech circles talk about ChatGPT 5.1 last week?
...ic distribution of quality. That means you can only get logarithmic benefit for exponential cost.
...es the junk rate at an exponential rate. But that's a logarithmic quality at an exponential cost rate.
..., but sprint towards a dead end. This is the source of the "logarithmic value / exponential cost" curve I've talked about in the past. Strength of momentum and height of ceiling are disjoint. MCP has strong momentum but a low ceiling.
...-ended solutions to open-ended problems is what gives the logarithmic value for exponential cost curve.
... must be extremely precisely defined, with formal rules. This formalization has exponential cost with scope. The larger the formalization process, the harder it is to coordinate to consensus, super-linearly. This double super-linear blowup makes ...
...th understanding (let alone modifying) it. Vibecoding has logarithmic value for exponential cost as the codebase gets bigger.
...spaces always hit an asymptote. Due to schemas not being flexible and requiring exponential cost for logarithmic benefit A knowledge management tool that was open-ended and integrated with your life could be powerful. Open-ended means if there's ...
Top down systems are more likely to have the logarithmic benefit / exponential cost curve. Only bottom-up systems have the exponential benefit / logarithmic cost curve. Not all bottom up systems have this characteristic; many don't c...
If you just YOLO writing of code, you get logarithmic value for exponential cost. As you add new features an old thing pops out of place and breaks. When that happens you know it's a poorly architected system. Always sprinting, ne...
Doing general purpose extractors is hard, a logarithmic curve of value for exponential cost. Anyone who's written a web scraper knows this in their bones. No individual case is hard, and easy for someone to say "the fix for this case is easy...
...lack of competition that leads to stagnation. A classic logarithmic returns for exponential cost curve. The benefit of a bottom-up ecosystem, but with a clear ceiling because the system is not open but is beholden to the aggregator. Efficiency fo...
...e they're the starter pistol, so they get an early lead. Logarithmic return for exponential cost. Early benefit, but towards a low ceiling. It's the warring curve again.
...of the edge cases of a real world phenomena. You get the logarithmic return for exponential cost curve. This curve collapses under its own weight. Each incremental thing to extend it costs more than it creates value. It's underwater. If you can r...
...likely to be well-generated by LLMs. The warring curve of logarithmic value for exponential cost curve again.
The logarithmic benefit for exponential cost cure creates a charismatic trap. In the beginning, you get huge amounts of value for small amounts of effort. You then commit to that approach, but a...
...imal trust to zero trust requires infinite energy. A logarithmic benefit for an exponential cost. It turns out that you can go from "a fair bit of trust" to "not that much trust" to "barely any trust at all" quite cheaply! It's the very last step...