How do new ecosystems get started?

First, they have to have a spark at their center.

This spark is a new use case that is minimally viable.

This means its expected value is greater than the expected cost for some critical mass of users.

Second, they grow quickly based on the speed of their network effects.

Some network effects have a weak gradient, and some have an incredibly steep one that accelerates with momentum.

For example, open systems typically have a much steeper network effect, all else equal.

An open system with multiple interacting network effects might be described as having "network effects out the wazoo"

Even if a proto-system has a very steep network effect, it doesn't matter if there isn't some minimum-viable spark to get it going.

This is the "way in" to the ecosystem.

A spark has to stand out from the alternatives to get adoption to start.

If the alternatives are all very good, then that spark has to be very cleverly selected and invested in.

This is because there are a very small number of small sparks that might plausibly stand out, so you must carefully search for and build one.

But imagine that some new technology has shown up that has thrown the normal value landscape into a bit of chaos, with everyone trying to figure out what good looks like.

This means that finding a spark that stands out is more likely. There are many more plausible "ways in," any of which might work.

The longer your runway, the more open the system, and the more chaotic the alternatives, the more likely that some way in will activate, and the less important it is to have the way in.