116 chunks · 71 episodes
You have to work to get disconfirming evidence from LLMs[rb].[rc][rd] LLMs are too eager to please. If you aren't careful they won't question you, even if you give it false premises. A trick someo...
...ch.) That is, form a mental model, a hypothesis. Then expose that hypothesis to disconfirming evidence, for example ground truthing it. Guess and check. The disconfirming evidence gives you the information necessary to update your hypothesis to make it...
User feedback should be used as disconfirming evidence. It helps test and ground truth your hypothesis. it doesn't tell you what to think. You have to have your own hypothesis. What your early adopters (o...
...ught partner. But be careful; if you aren't curious enough to find and dig into disconfirming evidence Claude will happily "yes, and" you off a cliff.
...y believe it and don't even see how it could be wrong. You will completely miss disconfirming evidence, because it so deeply goes against your fundamental belief. The only thing more dangerous than putting on blinders is putting on blinders that hide d...
...et good sparring partners. True sparring is a great way to improve. Sparring is disconfirming evidence that can't kill you. If you don't spar the disconfirming evidence will come from the external swarm battering you, which might kill you. Someone who ...
Everyone says they want disconfirming evidence, because they know that's what they're supposed to want to want. But most of the time, people don't actually want that.
LLMs can help make your ideas better with cheap and easy disconfirming evidence. LLMs can give you disconfirming evidence to critique your idea, without any shame.[agc][agd][age] Safe. Private. You aren't wasting anyone else's ti...
...nterested. They have useful things to say, and also have the patience to absorb disconfirming evidence from you.
... easy ways to learn. Failure is the only way to learn.[alr][als] Failure hurts. Disconfirming evidence. Confronting that you were wrong. Don't try to make no mistakes. Try to fail at the fastest positive rate to learn. Fail early and often. Smaller mis...
Disconfirming evidence is simply a surprise. A thing not predicted by your model, whose existence implies your model, as it exists, is wrong. It is only by realizing your m...
...ioning environment will constantly be unearthing and collaboratively processing disconfirming evidence. A dysfunctional environment will be constantly ignoring or sweeping under the rug disconfirming evidence. "Look, we clearly don't disagree, because ...
Abrasion[and] is a process to help shave off little slivers of disconfirming evidence. It is a process to produce these little bits of disconfirming evidence. Tension is not abrasion[ane]. Tension is stressful but does not necessarily ...
...: abrasion, agility, and resolution[anf]. Abrasion to turn up little slivers of disconfirming evidence. Agility to not get bogged down and over-complexify, to be willing to say "not yet" or focus on pragmatic responses. Resolution to absorb and distill...
...are naturally abrasive. In the best environments that abrasion is the source of disconfirming evidence that makes the team great. People on the team find that abrasion to be empowering. In the worst environments that abrasion is pure intimidation. It m...
... safety creates the space for unsafe thinking. Unsafe thinking means looking at disconfirming evidence, actually digging into disagreements, and considering other options. Psychological safety, when done properly, can create the space for much better o...
... see is the first step to seeing it. Optimistic curiosity is that when you find disconfirming evidence, instead of interpreting it as a threat, you see it as an opportunity, a way to gain more momentum through increased clarity. Surprise should feel li...
You have to actively remember to look for disconfirming evidence. You don't have to remember to look for confirming evidence. We do it naturally because it feels good to have your beliefs confirmed. But disconfirmi...
...ialize it as a static thing. Socialization is the creative act; the place where disconfirming evidence emerges and makes the ideas better than what either party started the conversation with.
... not be viable in practice. While deciding which plan to execute, you want more disconfirming evidence, in order to make a better decision. But once a plan is the Official Plan, you move from wanting to find disconfirming evidence to wanting to find no...