116 chunks · 71 episodes
...f you have a chip on your shoulder you won't learn. Learning requires absorbing disconfirming evidence, not deflecting it. When you have a chip on your shoulder, you'll be in a defensive crouch. Everything has some level of BS. So if you have a chip on...
...y, team members can give their anxiety to the leader, and the leader uses it as disconfirming evidence to make the idea stronger. The team members offload stress, the leader onboards useful information to make the project stronger. The anxiety transmut...
Progress comes from disconfirming evidence. And yet it is emotionally hard to receive disconfirming evidence. It makes people do a defensive crouch--which then makes it even harder for them to...
...of influence extended, gaining more leverage. Simply insulate yourself from any disconfirming evidence or personal challenge, surrounded by sycophants. Saruman magic works through the absence of self-doubt, so build walls to prevent doubt-causing infor...
...and second, maintaining it. Generalizing it requires bombarding the system with disconfirming evidence. And then tweaking the code to be resilient to the disconfirming evidence. Software in use in the real world is naturally getting bombarded with disc...
...sal is gone when the model is right. This only works if you're actually getting disconfirming evidence. You can get the disconfirming evidence from a truly random sample – both confirming and disconfirming evidence. Another approach is to narrow in on ...
Surprise means the model was wrong. Surprise is precious. It's disconfirming evidence. Use it to make the model stronger and you're antifragile.
...ting high quality ideas is a "yes, and" stance. This helps find and incorporate disconfirming evidence, and do it in a collaborative, bridge-building way, where the other party feels seen and welcomed. But a "no, but" stance can also identify good idea...
...g you built isn't actually viable? If you built in a cave, it's hard to get the disconfirming evidence during development to make sure it's strong. Another approach is to develop it in the open, and make it illegible and boring. Even people who randoml...
As humans we want disconfirming evidence before making a choice, but not after making it. When choosing between options we're open to disconfirming evidence, and even seek it out. But once w...
...ty allows more rigorous thinking as a group, because it enables people to share disconfirming evidence, and that's necessary for rigorous thinking.
...ing real information, but it's total slop. The more that no one else tells them disconfirming evidence, the more that the incremental person will see it's dangerous to tell them, too, and will be even less likely to share. A ratcheting supercritical st...
If you're given a "confirm my idea is good" project by a lead who doesn't want disconfirming evidence, ask them before you start "what kind of information would change your mind?". Because before you start, if they can't answer that question, then it'...
...the situation, and one that you should be willing to update or change with more disconfirming evidence.
...that can update nearly instantly. Humans are not like this. They quickly absorb disconfirming evidence from mistakes and learn. If you know the thing you're interacting with will learn, and learn quickly, you have more incentive to be patient and to tr...
It's impolite to share disconfirming evidence in an organization. Absorbing disconfirming evidence is what makes the thing strong. But sharing disconfirming evidence is impolite. In an organizati...
How does your system respond to disconfirming evidence? Does it break, or does it get stronger? That's how you know if it's alive or not.
... use them to tackle things you never imagined. You're better able to respond to disconfirming evidence and surprises. You have a lot of useful components on hand to combine. The likelihood you have a viable combination in the set goes up combinatoriall...
...aluable; it's what makes the thing alive, able to grow and become stronger from disconfirming evidence instead of worn down by it.
One reason gossip is intriguing is because it's disconfirming evidence. Things people don't say in polite company, some subset of which are true. Disconfirming evidence is good for us, and yet we often steer clear of it ...