17 chunks · 15 episodes
... improving quality. Locking in a how locks in the current model quality. You've capped downside, but also capped upside of better models. In some cases, more quality in output doesn't matter, and capping downside, and doing it cheaply, is more i...
A culture of permissionless innovation requires capped downside to the commons. One bad actor shouldn't be able to ruin it for everyone.
...on't get called on it you get to stay at the bailey. This gives you upside with capped downside. If you do this repeatedly, you can inchworm the argument forward bit by bit, moving the Overton window. One example: making a crass or offensive sta...
...de of possibly discovering a game-changing idea together, now or in the future. Capped downside, uncapped upside.
...rk, with no individual seedling being existential. A recipe for good upside and capped downside if you do it right. But in a startup, the singular project is everything. If it doesn't cohere, the whole thing evaporates.
...t if it's great, it can give recommendations that are game-changing for a user. Capped downside, uncapped upside. Agents, if they're not perfect, can do real damage. Uncapped downside, uncapped upside. Downside can lead to game over. The user ha...
...t better. A good quality pump gives you upside if the new content is great, but capped downside if it's not, because few people will ever see it.
...l allows much more innovation. What if you could have a software ecosystem that capped downside significantly?
...is means that there are often clever moves you can do that look risky, but have capped downside. Some people would rather have an "obnoxious aggression" culture than a "manipulative insincerity" to navigate. I'm the opposite. In a manipulative i...
...'ll enjoy it and feel fulfilled for its own sake, even if you have few viewers. Capped downside; negative opportunity cost. Because you enjoy it, you're likely to keep going, and apparently some research says the best predictor of influencer suc...
... A downside that won't kill you caps the downside, leaving the uncapped upside. Capped downside, uncapped upside. The more the asymmetry, the more you should just do it, get as many spins of the roulette wheel as possible.
...ke it, then they won't share it. The number of people who read it will be tiny--capped downside. But if they do like it, then they'll share it, and more people will read it, in proportion to how good it is. Uncapped upside. All that it costs is ...
...ectations) which means when they do something useful it's a mindblowing moment. Capped downside, significant upside. Anthropic Artifacts are just interface sugar, but they make the feedback loop immediate and help give a gradient of learning. Bu...
Illegible + open gives you capped downside while retaining exposure to upside. Many times you don't know if a given feature that's being built is viable or not. One way to do that is to build ...
...rabbit hole, and decide if what's there is interesting or not. This allows more capped downside and continuous feedback during development.
...ls you on the weak argument, you retreat to the motte. This tactic is a form of capped downside (albeit a cynical one). You can grow your territory but be unlikely to be knocked out of the game. But if you're too powerful, sometimes the bit work...
... meager profit)... but also a bonus lottery ticket. Each seedling is a bet with capped downside (mainly opportunity cost) and significant upside. To guarantee great returns, you'd need a big enough orchard to plant 1000 trees: 1000 bets.